Betting Lines
| Spread | DEL -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEL +10 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | FOR -1.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEL -0.6 (-9.4) | 145.7 (+6.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -1.2 (-11.2) | 147.2 (+4.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -0.7 (-10.7) | 149.0 (+3.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -0.6 (-10.6) | 146.5 (+5.5) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#155) | -0.5 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#237) | 1.17 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#215) | 1.44 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#290) | 0.590 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 38.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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