Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +6 | 224 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -9.6 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+80.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -5.3 (-0.7) | 142.8 (+81.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -5.0 (-1.0) | 142.8 (+81.2) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -4.9 (-1.1) | 143.3 (+80.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -4.3 (-1.7) | 147.1 (+76.9) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-6 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#47) | 18.7 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#49) | 1.00 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#64) | 1.42 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#53) | 0.478 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 44.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 43.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 37.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 30.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.2% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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