Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
| Money | JMU +170 MUR -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +12 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -9.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -4.9 (-7.1) | 129.5 (+6.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -5.6 (-6.4) | 130.6 (+5.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -5.7 (-6.3) | 130.4 (+5.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -5.9 (-6.1) | 132.0 (+4.0) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-14 | 31-3 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 18-0 |
| Home | 9-6 | 15-0 |
| Away | 5-6 | 11-1 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 63.4 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#185) | 8.6 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#46) | 0.47 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#69) | 0.66 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#71) | 0.494 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.2% | 26.2% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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