Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -475 LIU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +2 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -27.3 (-25.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -17.0 (-15.0) | 139.3 (-13.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -16.1 (-14.1) | 144.2 (-18.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -18.5 (-16.5) | 143.7 (-17.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -18.7 (-16.7) | 142.5 (-16.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-4 | 12-1 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.9 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#148) | -18.7 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#234) | -0.69 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#210) | -0.93 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#312) | 0.549 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.4% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 27.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.1% | 41.3% |
| TOV% | 25.1% | 26.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 12.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 78.7% | 56.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.3% | 36.6% |
Game Analysis
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