Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +6 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -7.4 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -3.5 (+9.5) | 139.2 (+0.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -4.4 (+10.4) | 142.1 (-2.1) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -4.4 (+10.4) | 141.6 (-1.6) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -4.5 (+10.5) | 142.3 (-2.3) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 17-1 | 12-6 |
| Away | 5-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#133) | 9.7 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#68) | 2.28 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#77) | 3.87 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#97) | 0.623 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 37.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 78.7% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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