Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -27.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +6 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -27.1 (-21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -22.0 (-16.0) | 151.5 (-5.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -22.1 (-16.1) | 151.2 (-5.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -26.2 (-20.2) | 155.2 (-9.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -23.7 (-17.7) | 154.2 (-8.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-6 | 3-9 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#23) | -8.3 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#126) | -2.43 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#117) | -3.67 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#201) | 0.417 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.6% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.7% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 8.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 58.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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