Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TNTC +115 LIP -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +11 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | TNTC -3.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -0.6 (+10.4) | 141.8 (+23.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -1.5 (+9.5) | 142.6 (+22.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -1.5 (+9.5) | 143.8 (+21.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -2.3 (+8.7) | 144.5 (+20.5) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | LIP 83 – 80 TNTC |
| Nov 15, 2023 | LIP 96 – 65 TNTC |
| Dec 15, 2022 | LIP 64 – 63 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#184) | 3.0 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#298) | 0.37 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#296) | 0.18 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#240) | 0.454 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 53.0% |
| 3PT% | 19.7% | 47.3% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 3.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.1% | 61.8% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 40.7% | 13.9% |
| FT Rate | 11.6% | 35.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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