Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -4.0 Push |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | SCST +150 UPST -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +4 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | SCST -0.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (+22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -0.2 (-3.8) | 141.9 (+18.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -0.7 (-3.3) | 135.5 (+24.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -0.4 (-3.6) | 137.6 (+22.4) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -1.0 (-3.0) | 142.7 (+17.3) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2025 | UPST 78 – 72 SCST |
| Dec 18, 2024 | SCST 85 – 70 UPST |
| Dec 10, 2022 | UPST 89 – 84 SCST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCST | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#337) | -4.0 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.06 (#352) | -1.06 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.79 (#351) | -1.55 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.304 (#346) | 0.375 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCST | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 17.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 59.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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