Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | SCST +390 UPST -520 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +6 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | UPST -13.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -6.1 (+0.1) | 143.7 (+6.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -10.5 (+4.5) | 139.5 (+10.5) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -10.3 (+4.3) | 140.8 (+9.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -10.1 (+4.1) | 141.5 (+8.5) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2024 | SCST 85 – 70 UPST |
| Dec 10, 2022 | UPST 89 – 84 SCST |
| Nov 24, 2021 | UPST 82 – 78 SCST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCST | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 5-11 |
| Home | 6-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-16 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -19.5 (#362) | -1.6 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.76 (#358) | -0.11 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.22 (#358) | -0.81 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.322 (#361) | 0.503 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCST | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.3% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 60.1% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.7% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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