Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UPST -250 SCST +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +5 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -7.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -4.7 (+0.3) | 148.2 (+24.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -5.8 (-0.8) | 149.9 (+23.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -6.2 (-1.2) | 150.5 (+22.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -5.6 (-0.6) | 150.9 (+22.1) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2025 | UPST 78 – 72 SCST |
| Dec 18, 2024 | SCST 85 – 70 UPST |
| Nov 24, 2021 | UPST 82 – 78 SCST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-12 |
| Home | 11-2 | 4-6 |
| Away | 4-12 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 84.7 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#328) | -11.6 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#199) | -0.91 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#242) | -1.14 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#151) | 0.434 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 26.7 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 13.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 58.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 58.4% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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