Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +5 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | NU -0.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -0.1 (-4.9) | 141.5 (+7.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -1.2 (-3.8) | 144.9 (+4.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -1.1 (-3.9) | 143.3 (+5.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -1.4 (-3.6) | 141.2 (+7.8) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 14-3 |
| Home | 10-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#37) | 9.8 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#112) | 3.35 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#118) | 5.46 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#213) | 0.611 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.33 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.3% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 14.2% |
Game Analysis
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