Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -28.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +25 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UK -27.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (+16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -23.0 (+2.0) | 135.0 (+12.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -21.8 (+3.2) | 139.3 (+7.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -25.8 (-0.8) | 138.4 (+8.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -27.8 (-2.8) | 137.1 (+9.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 18-0 | 4-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#22) | -8.5 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#97) | -3.62 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#85) | -5.42 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#84) | 0.235 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 45.2 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 48.2% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.0% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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