Betting Lines
| Spread | WRST -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +2 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -9.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -5.5 (-3.5) | 144.3 (+9.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -7.3 (-5.3) | 142.4 (+11.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -7.3 (-5.3) | 142.4 (+11.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -7.8 (-5.8) | 145.4 (+8.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-14 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-7 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#165) | -9.7 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#26) | -2.42 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#31) | -3.95 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#51) | 0.369 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 22.5% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 40.8% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.6% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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