Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NKU -280 WIU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIU +2 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | WIU -3.9 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIU -1.7 (-0.3) | 146.8 (-10.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIU -1.2 (-0.8) | 144.5 (-8.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIU -1.8 (-0.2) | 144.9 (-8.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIU -1.3 (-0.7) | 148.7 (-12.7) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#282) | 5.5 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#323) | 1.76 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#295) | 2.06 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#256) | 0.730 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 47.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 16.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 10.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 61.2% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.4% | 39.3% |
Game Analysis
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