Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -26.0 Push |
| O/U | 158.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +26 | 188 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -15.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+41.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -16.2 (+9.8) | 156.0 (+32.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -13.9 (+12.1) | 147.5 (+40.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -15.5 (+10.5) | 147.3 (+40.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -15.4 (+10.6) | 150.9 (+37.1) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-3 | 7-8 |
| Away | 9-2 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#17) | 6.6 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#21) | 1.40 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.10 (#20) | 2.21 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.675 (#19) | 0.571 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 38.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.6% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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