Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -26.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +27 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | USC -30.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -27.0 (-0.0) | 154.9 (+14.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -24.2 (+2.8) | 154.8 (+14.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -28.9 (-1.9) | 152.6 (+16.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -29.0 (-2.0) | 152.1 (+16.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#13) | -7.8 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#17) | -1.89 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.99 (#22) | -3.44 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#102) | 0.355 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.1% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.11 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.4% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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