Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +10 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | UGA -1.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -0.4 (-10.4) | 129.3 (-9.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -1.1 (-11.1) | 135.5 (-15.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -0.7 (-10.7) | 135.7 (-15.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -1.1 (-11.1) | 131.8 (-11.8) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 12-8 |
| Home | 6-13 | 11-7 |
| Away | 0-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 60.1 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#164) | -1.3 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#193) | -1.04 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#164) | -1.49 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#121) | 0.456 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.3% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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