Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU -300 TAR +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +1 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -5.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -5.1 (-4.1) | 125.1 (-18.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -4.0 (-3.0) | 132.4 (-25.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -4.9 (-3.9) | 130.8 (-23.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -3.2 (-2.2) | 129.1 (-22.1) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 9-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#280) | -3.5 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#197) | -0.81 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#192) | -1.08 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#173) | 0.493 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.7% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.5% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 13.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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