Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +2 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -2.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -1.9 (-3.9) | 122.9 (+5.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -1.6 (-3.6) | 122.9 (+5.1) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -1.6 (-3.6) | 122.5 (+5.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -1.9 (-3.9) | 126.5 (+1.5) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 9-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.8 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#23) | 8.6 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#33) | 0.96 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#35) | 2.14 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.727 (#12) | 0.533 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 41.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.2% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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