Betting Lines
| Spread | MILW -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MILW -4.1 (+18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MILW -1.1 (+15.1) | 146.4 (+3.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MILW -3.4 (+17.4) | 140.0 (+10.0) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MILW -3.2 (+17.2) | 141.7 (+8.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MILW -2.7 (+16.7) | 144.6 (+5.4) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-14 |
| Home | 9-7 | 6-10 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#331) | -5.4 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#312) | -0.45 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#298) | -0.09 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#287) | 0.535 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.8% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.8% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 14.6% |
Game Analysis
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