Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | BUF -220 SFA +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +1 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -9.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -7.0 (-8.0) | 151.9 (+5.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -5.6 (-6.6) | 154.8 (+2.2) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -5.9 (-6.9) | 154.7 (+2.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -6.5 (-7.5) | 153.9 (+3.1) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-11 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 9-5 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#78) | -2.8 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#127) | -0.55 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#142) | -0.51 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#50) | 0.585 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 25.3% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 36.4% |
Game Analysis
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