Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +23 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -12.7 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -8.2 (-14.8) | 132.1 (+6.9) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -7.7 (-15.3) | 135.5 (+3.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -8.1 (-14.9) | 135.9 (+3.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -8.9 (-14.1) | 137.4 (+1.6) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#238) | 9.3 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#179) | 1.40 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#188) | 2.24 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#212) | 0.675 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 39.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 27.5% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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