Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | LIB -2000 BCU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +8 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -6.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (-23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -5.2 (+2.8) | 125.3 (-15.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -2.8 (+5.2) | 132.5 (-22.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -2.6 (+5.4) | 131.7 (-21.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -2.4 (+5.6) | 131.0 (-21.0) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-4 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#212) | -8.7 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#315) | -0.69 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.18 (#327) | -1.39 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#155) | 0.453 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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