Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -24.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | SF -3500 MORG +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +16 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | SF -17.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -14.8 (+1.2) | 147.5 (+2.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -16.4 (-0.4) | 151.5 (-1.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -18.6 (-2.6) | 150.8 (-0.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -17.3 (-1.3) | 150.5 (-0.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | SF 94 – 64 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 13-15 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 7-6 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-3 |
| Away | 7-2 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#129) | -7.4 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#41) | -1.22 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#47) | -1.89 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.657 (#32) | 0.419 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.9% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 59.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 81.0% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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