Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | SF -6500 MORG +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +30 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | SF -25.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -22.3 (+7.7) | 142.4 (+15.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -20.2 (+9.8) | 144.4 (+13.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -21.4 (+8.6) | 144.5 (+13.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -20.5 (+9.5) | 143.2 (+14.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2021 | SF 83 – 67 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-4 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 80.1 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#134) | -18.7 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#143) | -3.64 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#124) | -4.49 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#141) | 0.340 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 58.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 40.5% |
Game Analysis
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