Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +10 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -2.6 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -4.7 (-5.3) | 138.3 (-6.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -2.5 (-7.5) | 138.1 (-6.1) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -1.5 (-8.5) | 139.2 (-7.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -3.8 (-6.2) | 140.2 (-8.2) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 25-6 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 14-4 |
| Home | 6-8 | 14-1 |
| Away | 0-12 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.3 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#94) | 7.2 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#85) | 2.87 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#101) | 4.81 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#99) | 0.520 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 53.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 47.3% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 5.4 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 61.9% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 19.1% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 9.6% |
Game Analysis
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