Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +30 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -17.1 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -14.6 (+15.4) | 149.1 (-13.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -14.3 (+15.7) | 153.7 (-17.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -14.2 (+15.8) | 153.7 (-17.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -14.9 (+15.1) | 151.7 (-15.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#2) | 9.9 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#76) | 1.29 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#88) | 1.66 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#78) | 0.563 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.6% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 31.1% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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