Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +15 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -13.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -8.7 (+6.3) | 142.9 (-5.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -6.9 (+8.1) | 139.8 (-2.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -8.6 (+6.4) | 144.0 (-7.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -8.6 (+6.4) | 143.5 (-6.5) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2022 | TOW 80 – 74 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 6-3 |
| Away | 11-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.4 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#100) | -1.5 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#229) | 0.31 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#230) | 0.45 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.363 (#314) | 0.512 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 79.7% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.5% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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