Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PENN +130 TOW -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +6 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | PENN -3.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (+22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -0.8 (-5.2) | 134.8 (+19.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -5.3 (-0.7) | 135.8 (+18.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -2.0 (-4.0) | 133.3 (+20.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -1.8 (-4.2) | 134.8 (+19.2) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2021 | TOW 76 – 61 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-13 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#219) | 6.6 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#288) | 2.35 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#281) | 3.52 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.312 (#217) | 1.000 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 26.4% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 41.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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