Betting Lines
| Spread | CLT -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +12 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | CLT -0.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (-32.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLT -0.7 (-12.7) | 139.8 (-17.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -1.0 (-13.0) | 147.6 (-25.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -1.3 (-13.3) | 149.9 (-27.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -1.7 (-13.7) | 145.1 (-23.1) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#176) | -1.4 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#46) | -0.54 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#81) | -1.13 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#72) | 0.445 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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