Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +26 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -5.1 (+20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -8.1 (+17.9) | 155.7 (+2.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -5.0 (+21.0) | 158.7 (-0.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -4.4 (+21.6) | 159.8 (-1.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -7.3 (+18.7) | 158.1 (-0.1) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-3 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#127) | -2.4 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#241) | -0.11 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#200) | 0.19 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.360 (#320) | 0.494 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 53.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 45.7% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 57.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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