Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +1 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -3.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -3.8 (-2.8) | 146.5 (-11.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -2.5 (-1.5) | 148.3 (-13.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -1.9 (-0.9) | 147.8 (-12.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -2.4 (-1.4) | 147.7 (-12.7) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 14-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 9-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#136) | -1.7 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#27) | -0.72 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#33) | -1.30 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#105) | 0.396 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.7% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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