Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -33.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +53 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -24.3 (-28.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -22.5 (-30.5) | 151.0 (+10.0) | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -15.1 (-37.9) | 148.7 (+12.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -19.1 (-33.9) | 149.8 (+11.2) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -19.9 (-33.1) | 149.3 (+11.7) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-23 | 28-4 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-1 |
| Home | 2-9 | 16-0 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-1 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 87.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#300) | 17.0 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#171) | 1.53 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#198) | 2.48 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#123) | 0.578 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 55.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 61.4% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 14.6% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 12.9% |
Game Analysis
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