Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WASH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WASH +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -14.6 (+17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -9.5 (+12.5) | 145.3 (+5.7) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -10.2 (+13.2) | 140.9 (+10.1) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -10.4 (+13.4) | 140.0 (+11.0) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -11.4 (+14.4) | 145.4 (+5.6) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WASH | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#265) | 10.0 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#324) | 2.58 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.66 (#335) | 3.86 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#290) | 0.628 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WASH | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.3% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 24.1% | 41.1% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 36.8% | 58.6% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.9% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 79.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 11.4% |
Game Analysis
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