Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +7 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | TA&M -8.2 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (-22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -6.0 (-1.0) | 127.9 (-20.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -5.7 (-1.3) | 130.9 (-23.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -5.8 (-1.2) | 131.2 (-24.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -7.5 (+0.5) | 130.0 (-23.0) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 27-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 16-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#248) | 4.6 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#237) | 0.55 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#224) | 0.87 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#165) | 0.541 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 24.5% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 26.4% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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