Betting Lines
| Spread | UTEP -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +12 | 92 | Lost |
| Massey | UTEP -14.1 (-26.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-48.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTEP -7.0 (-19.0) | 133.9 (-41.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTEP -9.7 (-21.7) | 140.6 (-48.6) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTEP -10.3 (-22.3) | 140.8 (-48.8) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTEP -9.1 (-21.1) | 139.2 (-47.2) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTEP | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#69) | 0.1 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#113) | 0.62 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#122) | 0.33 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#210) | 0.524 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTEP | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 14.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.5% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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