Betting Lines
| Spread | OAK -3.0 Push |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | OAK -6.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OAK -3.4 (+0.4) | 142.9 (+6.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OAK -4.3 (+1.3) | 141.2 (+7.8) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OAK -3.1 (+0.1) | 141.4 (+7.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OAK -2.1 (-0.9) | 145.5 (+3.5) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICE | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#169) | 5.9 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#56) | 2.92 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#61) | 3.87 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#79) | 0.752 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICE | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 22.0% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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