Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +9 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | UVM -11.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -8.9 (-0.1) | 130.4 (-23.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -6.8 (-2.2) | 130.1 (-23.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -6.7 (-2.3) | 130.4 (-23.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -6.3 (-2.7) | 130.5 (-23.5) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-24 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 17-1 |
| Home | 4-9 | 16-0 |
| Away | 2-11 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.8 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 61.1 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#306) | 3.5 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#252) | 0.54 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#233) | 0.87 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#193) | 0.533 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 12.1% |
| ORB% | 17.7% | 17.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 79.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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