Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +20 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -12.7 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -11.6 (-8.4) | 134.0 (+6.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -8.3 (-11.7) | 136.5 (+3.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -8.3 (-11.7) | 136.5 (+3.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -8.6 (-11.4) | 136.8 (+3.2) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#237) | 9.3 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#202) | 1.64 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#194) | 2.88 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#204) | 0.667 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 44.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 15.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 40.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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