Betting Lines
| Spread | UTAH -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA +205 UTAH -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTAH +14 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | UTAH -14.6 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTAH -9.8 (-4.2) | 134.5 (-4.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTAH -9.3 (-4.7) | 136.8 (-6.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTAH -9.6 (-4.4) | 136.0 (-6.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTAH -9.3 (-4.7) | 132.7 (-2.7) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 4-16 |
| Home | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#242) | 11.1 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#124) | 2.06 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#68) | 3.21 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#131) | 0.641 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 46.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 40.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 39.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 78.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.3% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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