Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +20 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -9.1 (-29.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-31.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -4.2 (-24.2) | 138.6 (-32.6) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -2.6 (-22.6) | 137.5 (-31.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -2.3 (-22.3) | 134.5 (-28.5) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.9 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#64) | -2.7 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#207) | -1.06 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#186) | -0.85 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#225) | 0.389 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.45 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 54.1% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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