Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +20 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -8.2 (+28.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.6 (+25.6) | 133.7 (-11.7) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -5.0 (+25.0) | 136.3 (-14.3) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -4.3 (+24.3) | 135.6 (-13.6) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -3.8 (+23.8) | 139.2 (-17.2) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#83) | 14.0 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#63) | 1.33 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#59) | 2.49 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.650 (#32) | 0.644 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 50.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 20.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.95 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 26.1% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 48.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.4% | 40.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 24.2% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 79.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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