Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +8 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -9.9 (+17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -5.7 (+13.7) | 132.7 (-8.7) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -6.8 (+14.8) | 132.5 (-8.5) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -6.0 (+14.0) | 132.7 (-8.7) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -6.4 (+14.4) | 131.1 (-7.1) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 31-3 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 18-0 |
| Home | 8-6 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-10 | 11-1 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 63.4 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#229) | 7.2 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#224) | 2.09 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#201) | 3.11 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.354 (#325) | 0.604 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.0% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 13.4% | 14.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 62.8% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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