Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +5 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -12.3 (-17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -6.9 (-11.9) | 139.4 (+15.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -7.4 (-12.4) | 137.9 (+17.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -7.6 (-12.6) | 140.3 (+14.7) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -7.6 (-12.6) | 140.2 (+14.8) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 17-1 | 8-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#66) | -6.0 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#183) | -0.18 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#196) | -0.17 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#281) | 0.431 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 43.8 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.3% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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