Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +18 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -13.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -11.6 (+6.4) | 126.8 (-4.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -7.5 (+10.5) | 132.0 (-10.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -8.5 (+9.5) | 132.3 (-10.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -9.9 (+8.1) | 129.3 (-7.3) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | HOU 79 – 51 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-14 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 9-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.8 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#30) | -3.0 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#49) | -0.76 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#46) | -1.09 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.717 (#12) | 0.485 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.9% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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