Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -2200 BTLR +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +28 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -14.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -11.1 (+16.9) | 133.0 (-3.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -12.6 (+15.4) | 134.3 (-4.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -12.0 (+16.0) | 134.4 (-4.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -13.0 (+15.0) | 133.1 (-3.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2021 | HOU 70 – 52 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 6-14 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-8 |
| Away | 10-0 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 19.6 (#8) | 10.3 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#90) | 2.24 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#72) | 4.80 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#131) | 0.609 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 42.5% | 41.8% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 39.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 40.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 12.0% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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