Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +2 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | CREI -0.6 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -3.9 (+1.9) | 130.3 (-0.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -0.9 (-1.1) | 130.9 (-0.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -1.3 (-0.7) | 132.5 (-2.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -1.9 (-0.1) | 131.0 (-1.0) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.6 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#127) | 3.3 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#163) | 1.56 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#199) | 2.48 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#163) | 0.563 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 51.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 43.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 14.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 12.3% |
Game Analysis
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