Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +11 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | COR -1.7 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -2.0 (+9.0) | 145.2 (+13.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COR -0.5 (+11.5) | 140.6 (+18.4) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COR -0.6 (+11.6) | 141.4 (+17.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COR -0.8 (+11.8) | 142.1 (+16.9) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | COR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 15-11 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#243) | 5.9 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#189) | 2.89 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#188) | 4.15 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#247) | 0.595 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | COR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 79.0% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 11.2% |
Game Analysis
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