Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +2 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -8.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-49.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -7.6 (-5.6) | 142.9 (-36.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -5.3 (-3.3) | 148.9 (-42.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -5.1 (-3.1) | 150.9 (-44.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -5.4 (-3.4) | 147.8 (-41.8) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 5-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-4 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#109) | -3.9 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#182) | -0.52 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#212) | -0.84 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#170) | 0.433 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 40.8% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 14.6% |
Game Analysis
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