Betting Lines
| Spread | RICE -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICE +5 | 213 | Won |
| Massey | RICE -9.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.0 (+89.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICE -6.8 (-1.8) | 133.6 (+79.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICE -6.2 (-1.2) | 130.5 (+82.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICE -6.4 (-1.4) | 132.2 (+80.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICE -7.1 (-2.1) | 134.2 (+78.8) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICE | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#164) | -9.3 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#73) | -0.78 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#76) | -1.03 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#85) | 0.498 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICE | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 34.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 25.5% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 15.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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